Fantasy Foray - Drafting & Forwards

For the first of what I hope is many fantasy –related blogs to come, I’ll kick off with a few of my tips for having a successful fantasy team, and I’ll try to keep it as general as I can as there are many variations to pools people compete in. I come from a background of non-keeper fantasy leagues, mostly points only and head to head, with 90% of them based on Yahoo. While most of my advice can be applied to that type of league, a lot of these tips can be transferable to other formats.

The most important part of any league is the draft. You can never do enough research in this area, but the one thing I will say is this: NEVER BUY FANTASY HOCKEY MATERIAL. Ever. It’s a waste of money. Anything to be found in any of these books should be looked at as entertainment only, as 99% of what is contained is information you already know, and the other 1% can be had elsewhere for free. You will never better yourself if you don’t afford yourself the opportunity to make mistakes and learn the hard (read: right) way. Though don’t let me discourage you from sending me cash if it makes you feel better.

And though the draft is THE most important part, there is no magical handbook or advice someone can provide you to tell you who to pick when and where. The first thing you need to accept is that 9 of every 10 players you want will be lost to you, or should be if you’re among other competent general managers. Hockey pools are not won in the first five or even ten rounds of the draft. These, for most, should be no-brainers, and frankly, hard to fuck up. The key to a successful draft is to identify 10 to 15 guys that you believe will fly under the radar, and the impetus is to plan when said players will be picked, how off the radar they are to your opponents, and how far you can let them slide. Gambling is a big part of the draft - accept that you will lose as much as you win in these instances.

And without getting too in depth with respect to drafting, as I’m sure most have completed their picks, the next step to drafting well is to identify which positions will be hardest and easiest to fill. Generally speaking, for example, centers tend to be the easiest position to replace / acquire. The nature of the position is that the play will almost always run through them, meaning a center is more likely to produce points than a winger. This trend can be seen in positional stats at the end of every season. The 40th highest scoring center is usually as productive as the 25th ranked right winger. Top flight defensemen, on the other hand, are generally the hardest to come by, and with a stable of good defense, you will almost always have leverage to acquire a player of a differing position during the season, especially later on.

But enough chatter on general tips, let’s move on to my picks for breakout / sleepers / “off the radar” type players that I believe will make an impact this season. These are players you should be able to come by relatively easily, but try not to make it too apparent to your fellow GMs that this is someone you really want.


BOUND TO MAKE YOU LOOK GOOD - Forwards:

Paul Stastny – Many times, people will forget or undervalue players because they recently have come off an injury. These are the #1 best gambles of any other kind of player, as no one else has anything to go by from the previous season. Many GMs are very short-sighted when it comes to past performance, but young guys like Stastny can’t be overlooked. He is the best player on Colorado, and while their team is awful, he will be a bright spot on this team. Expect 30 goals and 80 points from him. 40 goals is his upside, and not entirely out of the question if he gets help from his line mates.

Daniel Alfredsson – Not a secret by any means, but he had a bad year last year by his standards. He is a little injury prone, and yes, a year older, but he still is elite talent. If you can come by Alfie for a decent price, pull the trigger, he is worth the risk. Even if he only plays 65 – 70 games, I expect a bounce back year from him. Even in 65, he could put up 30 to 35 goals and 80 points. If he stays healthy, expect a 90+ point season from Daniel.

Daniel Briere – Another guy coming off an injury plagued season, but is a MUCH higher risk than the first two players. On the other hand, this should make him very cheap to acquire, and may even be on waivers in pools that aren’t terribly deep. When he plays, he gets points, and with the focus shifting in Philly to guys like Carter and Richards, don’t expect Danny to be checked as hard as he was when he first became a Flyer. He isn’t the go-to guy anymore, and that may be just the thing Briere needs to put together a good season. I expect 60 games, 25 goals and 70 points out of Danny.

Brian Little – Another guy who shines like a diamond in the rough, Brian put up 31 goals last year, and shouldn’t have trouble doing it again. He’s got a little of the Cy Young sickness, as he hasn’t put up many assists thus far, but I expect this to change. He doesn’t get the kind of attention he deserves, and I’m looking for him to put up 30 – 35 goals and to bump his assists up to at least the 30+ range.
David Backes – Off to a slow start thus far, but the pedigree here is too good to deny. 30 goals last year, and may dip a bit in the goal category, but with Kariya healthy and Andy Mac back in the fold, he won’t have to carry the mail like he did last year. Assists should go up with better players around him. Expect 25 to 30 goals, 35 assists.

Bobby Ryan – Now this is my “gut” pick, because I believe this kid will have a monster year. 1 year older, playing with two of the better forwards in the league, and tore shit up only playing 60 odd games. His upside is 50 goals (yes I said 50), and should put up close to 40 this year. Even if you have to give up more than you think might be necessary, take the risk. Will be a point per gamer, mark my words.


DO NOT WANT – Forwards to avoid:

Martin Havlat – Being the big dog in Minnesota this year, he will be the focal point of any team trying to shut down what little offense the Wild have. With teams checking Kane, Toews, Versteeg, etc., Marty could have a little more space to roam. Not this year. He will get banged up, especially by teams in the North West. I would be surprised if he plays more than 40 games this year.

Mike Cammalleri – I don’t know why, but it never fails that a player has a career year, signs a huge deal, and the production dips the first year in. Mike doesn’t have Iginla to play with this year, and while Gomez and Gionta are decent players, they won’t afford him the time and space he needs to reproduce his goal total of last year. He will get his points, but I believe will barely break 70 points. Other GMs will want a premium for him based on last year. Don’t get sucked in.

Devin Setoguchi - Broke out last year playing with Jumbo, but may lose opportunities to score with Heatley being the best player for the play to go through. He’ll get his points, but don’t expect the 30 goal range to be hit by him again this year. Again, nice to have, but only at the right price. A low one.
Ray Whitney – Go onto TSN, or whatever website you use for stats, and look at Whitney’s career. The guy gets injured for +/- 20 games every other year like clockwork. 70 points was nice last season, but don’t risk it. Wait until next year for the Wizard.

Jonathan Cheechoo – Screw the stats. I don’t care what anyone says, Cheechoo is human garbage, and his Rocket Richard season was a fluke. You’d think he couldn’t go to a more underachieving, choke-artist team, but somehow he did. Even if he scores 70 goals this season, he still sucks. Don’t bother with him. And yes, I am a Leafs fan.


That’ll do it for this session. Next up will be my assessment of defensemen, as well as a little bit on the art of The Deal, the second most important component to a successful fantasy season. And remember, just like in real hockey, half the game is mental, other half is being mental. Never be afraid to take a risk.